Pass probability

There is different alternative ways of measuring which player has control over which part of the pitch. Many of these build on the probability a pass is successful.

Overview of pitch control and passing models

Pitch control is the probability that a player could control the ball assuming it is at that location. William Spearman explains:

  • the principles behind pitch control models

  • how they can be used to investigate player positioning

  • how to extend them to account for ball motion.

  • How to combine pitch control models with measures of expected threat (see lesson 7)

  • defines ‘off-ball scoring opportunity’

Further reading

Pitch control demo is here

Physics-Based Modeling of Pass Probabilities in Soccer is here

Wide Open Spaces: A statistical technique for measuring space creation in professional soccer is here